I think it is great news for Selangorians and
Malaysians as a whole that Gerakan Harapan Baru has been formed by progressive
leaders of PAS.
Although things has been looking gloomy for opposition parties since the demise of Pakatan Rakyat which had gained a lot of ground against Barisan Nasional since 2008, personally I think Malaysians have a lot to look forward to now that each political parties future position into the next general election is slowly taking shape.
But before we speculate about the next general election which is still a few years ahead, let us discuss about Selangor and PKR’s current situation. This is relevant and important as just three days ago, Morib assemblyman Hasnul Baharuddin and Hulu Kelang assemblyman Saari Sungib, both of PAS, committed themselves to GHB.
Selangor State Assembly composition in June 2015
One of the most discussed topic when PAS had cut ties with DAP early last month, was on the position of the Selangor government led by PKR’s Mohamed Azmin Ali.
Back then, it was clear to all that despite Pakatan Rakyat ending, PAS leaders who held positions in Selangor had refused to quit the state government. This in return led to DAP pressuring Azmin to form a new government and exclude PAS representatives.
However, Azmin could not do so. Some would say that it was perhaps due to his gratitude towards PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang who had supported him in favour of PKR president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail as menteri besar during the Selangor leadership crisis.
But taking a legal position, I think that it was because Azmin did not have a clear majority in the state assembly and that deterred him from taking any risks that would jeopardise PKR’s position in Selangor.
If Azmin, with PKR’s 13 state seats and DAP’s 15 seats, had declared that PAS will be excluded from the state government administration after the demise of Pakatan Rakyat last month, the coalition would have lost 15 seats that belonged to PAS.
Worst, PAS may even join hands with Umno, which has 12 seats and the independent Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim who holds one state seat.
Simply put, Azmin’s DAP-PKR 28 seats in the state assembly will tie with the PAS-Umno-Independent’s 28 seats as well. This will result in a hung state assembly and constitutional crisis which can only be resolved via a state election.
Having a state election three years before its due date could cause some backlash from Selangor voters. In addition, it will also incur the wrath of the Selangor Sultan who had repeatedly demanded for stability in the state government.
Hence, breaking ties with PAS last month would have been unwise and a decision that was too risky to make. Unless and until PKR secures more seats in the state assembly, it would be best for them to maintain the status quo.
Current Selangor state assembly composition
Thankfully, the political situation has shifted dramatically over the past one month.
On July 23, 2015, it was widely reported that two PAS state assemblymen and one Member of Parliament had chosen to join the new GHB, a splinter group from PAS. GHB was formed by disgruntled progressive PAS leaders who disagreed with PAS’s directions since year 2013.
With GHB recruiting two new state assemblymen, PAS’s state seats can now be considered to have reduced to 13. And if GHB declares their vote of confidence for Azmin, together with DAP’s 15 seats, PKR will have a clear majority of 30 seats in the state assembly.
Even if PAS wishes to join hands with Umno and the independent Khalid, at best it will only have 26 seats. This would make it impossible for a PAS-Umno-independent state government to be formed.
Hence, the first thing PKR should do is to obtain an official declaration by GHB that it supports Azmin as the Selangor MB. By doing so, it will give them the certainty that it will be able to govern Selangor until the next general election.
Why Azmin should take this decision immediately
Now that PAS's Haron Din has come out with a statement, or rather as I see it, a threat against PKR that PAS would not hesitate to sever ties with it, I would strongly urge PKR to immediately cut ties with PAS and form a new state government with GHB and the principled DAP.
This is so because firstly, due to the current gloomy and frustrating political situation, it will provide supporters and those who are against the Barisan Nasional government a much needed boost of hope for Malaysia.
Secondly, with calls from many people calling for the opposition to get its act together, it answers the critics directly on how they intend to challenge Barisan Nasional in the next general election. By showing to the public that PKR intends to work with DAP and GHB instead of PAS that is aligned to Umno, it will give voters a clear alternative, and one which Malaysians desperately need to replace Barisan Nasional at both the state and federal levels.
Thirdly, it will allow the state government comprising DAP, PKR and GHB, and led by Azmin, to prove its credentials and leadership in managing Selangor to Malaysians.
More importantly, it will also instill confidence in Malaysians that this new coalition can administer the government harmoniously. Certainly, it will also be able to make a better case in replacing Barisan Nasional at the federal level.
Fourthly, by including GHB into its state administration, it will allow GHB to build its profile among the electorate before the next general election. As it would be foolish for PKR to contest the elections with the two-faced PAS, PKR should provide platforms for GHB to prove its credentials to the voters, in particular the Malay rural voters.
For example, by giving GHB the Islamic Affairs & Malay Customs Exco Portfolio, GHB will be able to prove its Islamic credentials and leadership in order to allow them to compete directly in Malay majority seats that are currently held by Umno or PAS.
Finally, this new political development will allow PKR and DAP to exclude PAS altogether in managing the state government for the next few years. It will also provide them ample time to make the necessary planning with GHB for the next general election.
PKR must take into consideration that the next general election is just a few years away. If it does not provide sufficient time for all parties to negotiate and finalise seat allocations and prepare for the next general election, even when Barisan Nasional is at its weakest, it will concede their best opportunity to conquer Putrajaya.
Hence, Azmin and PKR should cut ties with PAS and form a new alliance with DAP, GHB and any other like-minded political parties that share their common goals.
It will lose support from Malaysians as a whole if it continues to align itself with PAS who obviously supports Umno even under the shadow of the worst financial scandal to hit the country.
PKR has to take leadership and together with other parties, put an end to Barisan Nasional’s dominance in the next general election.
No comments:
Post a Comment